Friday, May 13--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log * JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY * Here are my biases for selected markets, as of this morning: Crude oil has put in a top and will trade between $90 and $110 in the coming weeks, or longer. Silver has put in at least a near-term top, while gold may have still more upside potential in the coming months. The U.S. dollar index is at or close to a major market bottom and will begin to appreciate in the coming weeks. Grain futures markets will likely see a significant weather scare this summer.--Jim STOCK INDEXES S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4- day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week's high of 1,358.40 and then at the May high of 1,372.70. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,343.80 and then at the May low of 1,325.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5 Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9- day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at this week's high of 2,415.25 and then at the May high of 2,428.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short- term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,399.25 and then at 2,385.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5 Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,650 and then more stops just below support at 12,600. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 12,700 and then at this week's high of 12,735. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5 U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter- term resistance lies at 124 16/32 and then at the May high of 124 25/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 123 22/32 and then at this week's low of 123 14/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5 JUNE U.S. T-Bonds 132 14/32--lifetime high 125 5/32--second pivot point resistance 124 22/32--previous day's high 124 16/32--first pivot point resistance 124 4/32--4-day moving average 124 --pivot point 123 26/32--previous day's close 123 26/32--9-day moving average 123 17/32--previous day's low 123 11/32--first pivot point support 122 27/32--second pivot point support 122 22/32--18-day moving average 122 18/32--Previous Month's high 119 28/32--100-day moving average 117 28/32--previous month's low 115 7/32--lifetime low June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 122.10.0 and then at this week's high of 122.21.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 122.00.0 and then at this week's low of 121.23.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0 JUNE U.S. T-Notes 126 10/32--lifetime high 122 30/32--second pivot point resistance 122 21/32--previous day's high 122 18/32--first pivot point resistance 122 10/32--4-day moving average 122 9/32--pivot point 122 6/32--previous day's close 122 --previous day's low 121 31/32--9-day moving average 121 29/32--first pivot point support 121 20/32--second pivot point support 121 7/32--previous month's high 121 7/32--18-day moving average 119 9/32--100-day moving average 117 29/32--previous month's low 109 6/32--lifetime low U.S. DOLLAR INDEX The June U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading. Bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum but need to show fresh power soon. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 75.60 and then at this week's high of 75.83. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 74.94 and then at this week's low of 74.53. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5 CRUDE OIL Crude oil prices are trading higher in early trading today. Trading has become very choppy. In June crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $101.00 and then at $102.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $99.00 and then at the overnight low of $97.87. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0 GRAINS Prices were higher in overnight trading. The key "outside markets"--crude oil, the U.S. dollar index, and precious metals--are in a bullish posture so far early today. The outside markets are presently trumping grain market fundamentals for near-term price direction in the grains.