Saturday, May 14, 2011

Morning Review

Friday, May 13--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Here are my biases for selected markets, as of this 
morning: Crude oil has put in a top and will trade 
between $90 and $110 in the coming weeks, or 
longer. Silver has put in at least a near-term top, 
while gold may have still more upside potential in 
the coming months. The U.S. dollar index is at or 
close to a major market bottom and will begin to 
appreciate in the coming weeks. Grain futures 
markets will likely see a significant weather scare 
this summer.--Jim

STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages 
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is 
above the 18-day moving average. Short-term 
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to 
bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical 
resistance comes in at this week's high of 1,358.40 
and then at the May high of 1,372.70. Buy stops 
likely reside just above those levels. Downside 
support for active traders today is located at the 
overnight low of 1,343.80 and then at the May low 
of 1,325.50. Sell stops are likely located just 
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market 
Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving 
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. 
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day average is above the 18-day. Short-term 
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral 
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is 
located at this week's high of 2,415.25 and then at 
the May high of 2,428.00. Buy stops likely reside 
just above those levels. On the downside, short-
term support is seen at the overnight low of 
2,399.25 and then at 2,385.00. Sell stops are 
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's 
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below 
support at 12,650 and then more stops just below 
support at 12,600. Buy stops likely reside just 
above technical resistance at 12,700 and then at 
this week's high of 12,735. Shorter-term moving 
averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day 
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving 
average is above the 18-day moving average. 
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) 
are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market 
Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 
9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day 
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is 
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, 
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at 124 16/32 and then at the 
May high of 124 25/32. Buy stops likely reside just 
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support 
lies at the overnight low of 123 22/32 and then at 
this week's low of 123 14/32. Sell stops likely 
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day 
Market Rating: 5.5
 
JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

132 14/32--lifetime high
125 5/32--second pivot point resistance
124 22/32--previous day's high
124 16/32--first pivot point resistance
124 4/32--4-day moving average
124 --pivot point
123 26/32--previous day's close
123 26/32--9-day moving average
123 17/32--previous day's low
123 11/32--first pivot point support
122 27/32--second pivot point support
122 22/32--18-day moving average
122 18/32--Previous Month's high
119 28/32--100-day moving average
117 28/32--previous month's low 
115 7/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 
9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day 
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 
9-day is above the 18-day moving average. 
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral 
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the 
overnight high of 122.10.0 and then at this week's 
high of 122.21.5. Buy stops likely reside just 
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support 
lies at 122.00.0 and then at this week's low of 
121.23.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those 
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

126 10/32--lifetime high
122 30/32--second pivot point resistance
122 21/32--previous day's high
122 18/32--first pivot point resistance
122 10/32--4-day moving average
122 9/32--pivot point
122 6/32--previous day's close
122 --previous day's low
121 31/32--9-day moving average
121 29/32--first pivot point support
121 20/32--second pivot point support
121 7/32--previous month's high 
121 7/32--18-day moving average
119 9/32--100-day moving average
117 29/32--previous month's low 
109 6/32--lifetime low

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is weaker in early 
trading. Bulls still have some upside near-term 
technical momentum but need to show fresh power 
soon. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are 
neutral early today. The dollar index finds 
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight 
high of 75.60 and then at this week's high of 
75.83. Shorter-term support is seen at the 
overnight low of 74.94 and then at this week's low 
of 74.53. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading higher in early 
trading today. Trading has become very choppy. In 
June crude, look for buy stops to reside just above 
resistance at $101.00 and then at $102.00. Look for 
sell stops just below technical support at $99.00 
and then at the overnight low of $97.87. Wyckoff's 
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices were higher in overnight trading. The key 
"outside markets"--crude oil, the U.S. dollar 
index, and precious metals--are in a bullish 
posture so far early today. The outside markets are 
presently trumping grain market fundamentals for 
near-term price direction in the grains.